My immediate thought is that when cold you're not drawing fuel into the engine, because it might be possible have an intake air leak. When the engine cools down gets cold if the intake rubber tubes isn't seated real good (the rubber tubes on the engine side of the carbs), there could be an air leak the prevents the vacuum getting created by the engine at starting time from drawing fuel into the cylinders. When it gets warm the aluminum expands from heat and seals the rubber intake tubes, so you don't see it then. just a thought. Mine starts every time on the first kick from cold, when not using the electric start, if I prime the motor with ignition off, by slowing rotating the engine 2 to 3 times with the kick starter.
And 1 other thing to try, is to loosen the gas cap (break the seal), in case the cap vent is starting to fail when cold and holding a vacuum on the fuel in the tank from preventing gravity to work feed fuel into the carbs.